1. Global Production Pattern: Asia Expands While Europe Declines
According to Worldstainless association data, global crude stainless steel output reached 15.8 million tons in Q1 2026, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Asia contributed 13.4 million tons, up 3.3%, led by China, Indonesia and India.
By contrast, EU output dropped to 1.5 million tons, down 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining a downward trend for two consecutive years. The United States recorded a mild output increase of 2.3%.
A 1.2 million-ton stainless steel production project jointly invested by Tsingshan Group and Jindal India was officially launched in March. India currently ranks first globally in capacity growth with a growth rate of 54%.
2. European Market: Sharp Price Rally and Strict New Policies
2.1 Latest European Price Increase
Effective June 1, European major producer Aperam lifted its alloy surcharges significantly. The 304 grade rose to €2,365 per ton, and 316L hit a record high of €4,056 per ton. Northern European cold-rolled 304 spot prices stand at €2,800–€2,850 per ton, with delivery cycles further extended due to tight supply.
2.2 EU New Trade & Carbon Rules
The EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), fully implemented in 2026, plans to expand coverage to stainless steel semi-finished products and steel scraps. Starting from July 1, the EU will cut steel import quotas by 47% and raise protective tariffs to 50%. Detailed country-based quotas will be released at the end of June, greatly tightening import access.
3. Global Trade Barriers: Frequent Anti-Dumping Measures
Multiple economies issued new trade restrictions targeting Chinese stainless steel products in early June 2026:
- Eurasian Economic Commission: Extended anti-dumping duties on Chinese stainless steel welded pipes (0.4–6mm wall thickness) for another five years (June 10).
- Mexico: Renewed anti-dumping duties of $5.4/kg on Chinese stainless steel sinks (June 8).
- Argentina: Launched sunset review proceedings against imported Chinese stainless steel tableware (June 3).
4. Raw Material & Shipping Cost Support
LME nickel prices remain stable at $18,800–$19,500 per ton. Affected by production adjustment and power supply limits, Indonesia’s NPI output decreased by 10%–15%, strongly supporting stainless steel raw material costs.
In addition, the ongoing Red Sea shipping crisis has pushed Asia-Europe and Asia-Middle East freight rates up by 30%–50%, with delivery delays of 15–20 days, further tightening European stainless steel supply.
5. Market Outlook
In the short term, European stainless steel prices will remain strong, supported by quota reduction, carbon tariffs and high nickel costs. Asia will continue to dominate global capacity growth. Meanwhile, global trade frictions will remain intense. Steel exporters need to pay close attention to international compliance policies and regional trade barriers to stabilize overseas orders.