In the first half of 2025, China's steel exports showed a significant "volume increase with price decline" trend. According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 58.147 million tons of steel from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%; the average export price was 699.3 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%. These figures not only reflect that China's steel still maintains a basic position in the international market but also expose the hidden worry of relying on low-price strategies for price competitiveness.

Entering July, the export market entered a phased adjustment. Industry monitoring shows that due to multiple factors such as the rebound in domestic steel prices, seasonal weakness in demand from Southeast Asia, and the concentrated effectiveness of trade barriers, the export rhythm slowed down compared with June. A market survey by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) shows that export orders of key steel enterprises in the first half of July decreased by 7.3% month-on-month, and some enterprises have adjusted their production scheduling plans for the second half of the month.

As the "dark horse" in exports in the first half of the year, coated plates saw a year-on-year increase of 1.95 million tons from January to May, replacing hot-rolled coils as the steel category with the largest export volume. Its core advantages lie in higher technical added value than ordinary plates and avoiding anti-dumping barriers imposed by some countries on hot-rolled products. In terms of export destinations, ASEAN countries such as the Philippines and Thailand contributed nearly 40% of the growth, becoming major growth drivers.

However, this growth momentum encountered challenges in July. A survey by Mysteel on enterprises accounting for 20% of coated plate exports to Southeast Asia shows that export volume in July decreased by 5%-10% month-on-month. There are two core reasons: first, the ex-factory price of domestic coated plates rose by 3%-5% compared with June, leading to a narrowing of the FOB price advantage; second, Southeast Asia entered the hot and rainy season, construction slowed down, and procurement demand fell seasonally. Enterprises generally predict that exports may remain low in August and are expected to improve marginally in September as the weather cools down.

Different from the fluctuations in finished steel exports, billet exports maintained "explosive growth" in the first half of the year. Billet exports reached 5.89 million tons from January to June, a year-on-year increase of over 300%. Among them, exports in June were 1.18 million tons, a slight decrease from 1.37 million tons in May but still at a historical high.

This phenomenon has triggered extensive discussions in the industry. The China Iron and Steel Association clearly stated that as primary products, a large number of billet exports not only consume domestic energy and resources but also exacerbate dependence on low-end production capacity. A relevant person in charge of the association emphasized at an industry meeting in July: "Each ton of exported billets creates about 800 yuan less added value than exported finished steel. This 'selling raw materials' model runs counter to the direction of the iron and steel industry's upgrading." At present, relevant departments have begun to study the possibility of adjusting billet export tariffs.

July became a "peak period for the effectiveness of trade protection policies", directly impacting China's steel export pattern.

On July 6, Vietnam's policy of imposing anti-dumping duties of 23.1%-27.83% on Chinese hot-rolled steel coils officially took effect, with a validity period of 5 years. This policy had an immediate impact on bilateral trade - data shows that China's exports of hot-rolled coils to Vietnam dropped by 43.6% year-on-year from January to May 2025, and order volume in the first half of July fell by another 15% compared with the same period in June. Some steel enterprises have shifted their export focus to Vietnam to cold-rolled plates and other untaxed categories, but it is difficult to fill the gap of hot-rolled coils in the short term.

On July 7, South Korea announced the extension of the validity period of provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled stainless steel plates to September 4. Affected by this, China's steel exports to South Korea decreased by 18.9% year-on-year from January to May, and the order negotiation cycle in July was significantly prolonged. Some enterprises have turned their target markets to Central and Eastern Europe.

In addition, the phased tariff system that the United States plans to implement from August 1 is triggering a pre-market response. In July, China's steel export quotations to the United States have begun to include tariff cost calculations, and some high-value-added products have started to seek re-export through third countries such as Mexico and Canada to avoid direct tariffs.

For the export trend in July and the second half of the year, industry institutions have given a cautiously optimistic judgment. Mysteel predicts that the total steel exports in 2025 may reach about 120 million tons, a slight increase of 3%-5% compared with 2024, but the growth driver will shift from "volume increase" to "quality improvement".

The China Iron and Steel Association suggested that enterprises should focus on two major directions: first, increase research and development of green and low-carbon products. For example, Hebei Iron and Steel Group recently signed an order for 10,000 tons of hydrogen-based green steel to be exported to Italian customers, proving the competitiveness of low-carbon steel in the European market; second, deepen the development of emerging markets along the "Belt and Road". Regions such as the Middle East and Africa have strong infrastructure demand and relatively few trade barriers, which are expected to become new growth poles.

Overall, China's steel exports in July are in a "pain period of structural adjustment", with short-term pressures and long-term opportunities coexisting. How to find new tracks amid trade frictions and improve added value in the balance of volume and price will be the core issue of the industry in the next stage.